South Sudan

The Situation

On January 9th, 2011 the people of South Sudan voted to secede from the North and form a new nation. This vote was promised in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005, which ended a brutal 22-year civil war between the Sudanese government and groups in South Sudan. The January referendum displayed a landslide vote for secession, with nearly 100% of voters in the South voting in favor of separation.

Six months later on July 9, 2011, the Republic of South Sudan officially became independent. Despite a peaceful separation between the North and South, there remain several unresolved and contentious issues, including the Abyei region, border delineation, popular consultations for two regions remaining in the North and oil wealth sharing.

From 1983-2005, the North and South fought a brutal civil war which led to the deaths of an estimated two million Southerners and displaced an additional four million civilians. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s forces not only directly attacked the South but also manipulated tribal tensions to create internal conflict that still persists today. While the Sudanese government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) signed a peace agreement in 2005, Bashir has continued to support instability in the South.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future of Abyei is particularly concerning following the Sudanese government’s invasion of the region in May. According to the CPA, the residents of Abyei were scheduled to have a referendum vote on whether or not they would be part of Sudan’s South or North. This referendum for Abyei was to run at the same time as the referendum on South Sudan’s independence, however, it was indefinitely postponed due to an inability of the parties to reach agreement on voter eligibility. On May 21, 2011 the Government of Sudan invaded the disputed Abyei region which resulted in the displacement of more than 113,000 civilians.

Fighting in the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile in the North has sent tens of thousands of refugees across the border into South Sudan. The North has accused South Sudan of arming rebels in those states, while the South counters with charges that the North continues to arm militias to destabilize the South. As the Sudan-South Sudan border remains uncertain, Sudanese forces have clashed with South Sudanese forces — particularly around the disputed border town of Jau in Unity state. Sudanese Armed Forces have also bombed across the border on several occasions including bombs dropped on areas where refugees have gathered.

Tensions between Sudan and South Sudan also remain over disputed oil transit fees from South Sudan to Sudan. This situation threatens not only the economic well-being of both countries which are both heavily dependent on oil revenues but also a return to war.

In addition to the tensions with its neighbor to the north, South Sudan, as the world’s newest nation, faces many internal political, economic and security challenges. The government is dominated by one party, the SPLM, a group that is still working to transition from its roots as a rebel group that fought for years in the bush. The country’s first president, Salva Kiir, and vice president, Riek Machar, are both former rebel leaders who at one time fought against each other. The South has a history of inter-ethnic fighting as well as clashes between rebel groups and the SPLA which have had a negative impact on civilians in the region. Over the past two years inter-communal violence in Jonglei State has grown particularly worrying as local tribes carry out revenge attacks for cattle raids, razing entire villages in the process. Over one thousand people have been killed as a result of the ethnic violence in Jonglei and thousands more injured and displaced.

South Sudan has also had to contend with the threat of militia groups, many with a history of support from the North. Particularly in Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei states, militia threats have tested the level of professionalization of the new army as several government soldiers have been implicated in heavy handed responses against civilians. While several militia leaders have entered into ceasefire agreements with the government, militia violence and use of land mines continue to be a threat to the country.

The Lord’s Resistance Army, a Ugandan rebel group responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity, continues to target civilians in South Sudan’s Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal states. Since September 2008, the LRA has displaced over 450,000 civilians and abducted an estimated 30,000 children in Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan and is responsible for mass atrocities including killings, rapes, mutilation, and abductions of civilians. In 2010, President Obama signed the LRA Disarmament and Northern Uganda Recovery Act and in November 2011 sent 100 U.S. military advisors to train troops in LRA affected countries.

The South also faces immense development challenges ranking near the bottom of the Human Development Index and with nearly 90 percent of the population illiterate. The international community must constructively engage with South Sudan to promote good governance, economic development, and security sector reform in order to achieve sustainable peace.