Ongoing conflict areas are countries where United to End Genocide is currently engaged to prevent or stop genocide and mass atrocities. These are countries where systematic killing, severe torture, or rape of civilians occur on a massive scale and include Sudan, South Sudan, Burma, Syria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Countries are placed on the Watchlist when Policy determines that there is a significant potential for widespread and systematic targeting of civilians around a specific trigger incidents. Inspired by the analysis and framework of the United Nations’ Office of the Special Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide (OSAPG), trigger incidents include:
- Deployment of military forces for use against civilians: When governments use the military to suppress internal dissent, troops may improperly use deadly force against peaceful demonstrators.
- Escalation of a non-violent conflict to an outbreak of armed hostilities: Conflicts are always at risk of escalating into large-scale crisis, which increases the risk that civilians will be targeted by one or more belligerents.
- Events that change the power relationship between the state and opposition groups: Changes in the power relationship between the state and opposition groups, such as protests in Yemen, resulted in an overzealous crackdown by the state seeking to retain power.
- Highly contested elections (or probability of change of government outside of an electoral or constitutionally sanctioned process): Over the last decade, several elections, including the 2007 Presidential elections in Kenya, the 2008 Presidential elections in Zimbabwe, and the 2011 Presidential elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, precipitated mass violence between political party supporters, and security forces and opposition activists.
Areas of Concern
These are countries where policy has expressed concerns about the potential for large-scale targeting of civilians but are not yet on the Watchlist.